Google has admitted its earthquake warning system in Android could have been more effective in the deadly earthquake that struck Turkey in 2023 (via Android Authority).
Writing in the Science journal, Google’s own researchers have blamed “limitations to the detection algorithms” as the reason why the alert system drastically underperformed in Turkey in 2023. According to that report, the system should have sent ten million urgent warnings out in response to the brewing earthquake — but instead, the system only sent out 469.
The alert system should have warned significantly more people
Google has learned from the disaster, though
Android’s earthquake alert system works by taking data from many Android phones at once. If a large number of Android phones are detecting shaking through their accelorometers at the same time, then the system tags it as an earthquake and automatically sends out alerts based on how bad the shaking is. Since earthquakes travel relatively slowly through solid objects like the ground, it means action can usually be taken to get people clear. The most urgent of the alerts, Take Action, is designed to override Do Not Disturb and other silenced modes and will blare an alarm, to make sure owners have as good a chance as possible.
Unfortunately and tragically, on the day of the 2023 Turkey earthquake, Google’s report has found the algorithm drastically underestimated the strength of the earthquake, measuring it between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS) — the true magnitude was 7.8. As a result, only 469 Take Action alerts were sent out, with the majority of alerts being the less serious Be Aware tier, which does not override silent modes. This detail is especially tragic, as it might have meant that more people were aware of the impending earthquake, as it began at 04:17, and the more serious Take Action alert may have woken more people.
Thankfully, Google has already made big changes to the system’s algorithm, and has tested it using a mock version of the same earthquake in Turkey. During that simulation, the system sent out 10 million Take Action alerts, and 67 million Be Aware alerts to those living further out from the affected area. However, many are upset it took so long for Google to acknowledge the problem and make the changes that were clearly needed. The BBC, which had run its own investigation into the effectiveness of Google’s system after the 2023 earthquake, has since asked Google how its upgraded system has worked in more recent earthquakes. To date, Google has not answered.
